2016 NBA Draft Could Include Fewer 1-and-Dones, Influence Future Decisions

By C.J. Moore, College Basketball National Lead Writer 

Jan 19, 2016

The consensus among NBA scouts after two months of the college basketball season is that this freshman class is thin on one-and-done prospects. There are solid options at the top (LSU's Ben Simmons, Duke's Brandon Ingram and Croatian Dragan Bender), but it's not a deep draft, and that is going to create an interesting scenario: Would freshmen who wouldn't typically be advised to leave early end up bolting at the chance of getting guaranteed money in the first round?

More players will likely test the waters this spring because of the NCAA's new rule that no longer limits the number of times a prospect can declare for the draft. But by the NCAA also pushing back the deadline to withdraw to 10 days after the final day of the NBA combine, players should be able to make more informed decisions.

The NBA stance has always been that it wants players to stay in school. "The league has always preferred being able to take a longer look at everybody," one scout told Bleacher Report.

But you wouldn't know that by league-wide drafting tendencies. Last year, a record 13 one-and-done freshmen went in the first round, and the number of freshmen leaving has been trending upward. 

Even with a belief that this class is thin on one-and-done talent, mock drafts are still littered with freshmen—DraftExpress.com has 12 freshmen in its current mock.

But while the league hasn't exactly changed its approach based on drafting tactics, the line of logic with the draft is starting to morph thanks to the success stories of some four-year college players who went overlooked and are now shining.

"The reason there won't be as many freshmen drafted in this class isn't there are great freshmen who aren't coming out. It's a combination of this just isn't a very good freshman class, and the trend in the NBA is toward older players and older guys who are ready to play," another NBA scout told Bleacher Report. "Everyone wants a Draymond Green or an Isaiah Thomas or a Jimmy Butler or a Chandler Parsons. No one wants to take the next Anthony Bennett."

That makes sense, yet the fascination with chasing potential would have to subside to change the thought process of high-profile prospects. 

A player like Kentucky's Skal Labissiere, for instance, is still projected to go in the lottery despite putting up modest numbers (7.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per game) and falling out of Kentucky's starting lineup. His lack of strength has challenged him in the college game, and on the defensive end, he's been foul-prone, averaging 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes. Yet, I haven't talked to one scout who believes he'll slip out of the lottery. 

"He'll probably be picked somewhere in the teens at the latest, and there's a chance if he comes on and shows some signs of life late in the season, he could crack the top 10," the second scout said. 

So, most likely, Labissiere will leave after his freshman season. 

But here's the question that needs to be asked by a coach like John Calipari, who has encouraged his players to leave when guaranteed money is on the table: Is Labissiere better off staying in school? 

The family end of that decision is a difficult one. Labissiere is from Haiti, one of the poorest countries in the world, but from a strictly basketball perspective (and maybe even a financial one), absolutely he should stay in school.

Staying means he can learn how to produce at the college level and be coached by a Hall of Famer in Calipari. The other option is to likely either spend the next few years on an NBA bench or in the D-League.

This freshmen class, more than most, has a long list of players who could be facing a similar scenario, and if they test the waters, they could end up getting feedback that suggests they stay in school. 

Source: bleacherreport